Coverart for item
The Resource An evaluation of the world economic outlook forecasts, Allan Timmermann

An evaluation of the world economic outlook forecasts, Allan Timmermann

Label
An evaluation of the world economic outlook forecasts
Title
An evaluation of the world economic outlook forecasts
Statement of responsibility
Allan Timmermann
Creator
Contributor
Author
Subject
Genre
Language
eng
Summary
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance
Member of
Action
digitized
Cataloging source
E7B
http://bibfra.me/vocab/lite/collectionName
IMF eLibrary
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Timmermann, Allan
Government publication
international or intergovernmental publication
Illustrations
illustrations
Index
no index present
Language note
English
LC call number
HD75
LC item number
.T56 2006 ONLINE
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
  • dictionaries
  • bibliography
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
International Monetary Fund
Series statement
IMF Working Paper,
Series volume
WP/06/59
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Economic development
  • Economic forecasting
  • International economic relations
  • Prévision économique
  • Développement économique
  • Relations économiques internationales
  • Economic development
  • Economic forecasting
  • International economic relations
Label
An evaluation of the world economic outlook forecasts, Allan Timmermann
Instantiates
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
multicolored
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY""; ""II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET""; ""III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS""; ""IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS""; ""V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE""; ""VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED?""; ""VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY""; ""VIII. REVISIONS FROM BOARD TO PUBLISHED FORECASTS""; ""IX. RECENT PERFORMANCE OF WEO FORECASTS""; ""X. LONG-RUN FORECASTING PERFORMANCE FOR G-7 ECONOMIES""; ""XI. COMPARISON OF WEO AND CONSENSUS FORECASTS""; ""XII. FORECAST COMBINATIONS""; ""XIII. RECOMMENDATIONS""; ""XIV. CONCLUSION""; ""References""
Control code
694141156
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (106 pages)
Form of item
online
Isbn
9781283514866
Issn
2227-8885
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other control number
10.5089/9781451908558.001
Other physical details
illustrations
Reproduction note
Electronic reproduction.
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)694141156
System details
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002.
Label
An evaluation of the world economic outlook forecasts, Allan Timmermann
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
multicolored
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY""; ""II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET""; ""III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS""; ""IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS""; ""V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE""; ""VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED?""; ""VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY""; ""VIII. REVISIONS FROM BOARD TO PUBLISHED FORECASTS""; ""IX. RECENT PERFORMANCE OF WEO FORECASTS""; ""X. LONG-RUN FORECASTING PERFORMANCE FOR G-7 ECONOMIES""; ""XI. COMPARISON OF WEO AND CONSENSUS FORECASTS""; ""XII. FORECAST COMBINATIONS""; ""XIII. RECOMMENDATIONS""; ""XIV. CONCLUSION""; ""References""
Control code
694141156
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (106 pages)
Form of item
online
Isbn
9781283514866
Issn
2227-8885
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other control number
10.5089/9781451908558.001
Other physical details
illustrations
Reproduction note
Electronic reproduction.
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)694141156
System details
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002.

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