Coverart for item
The Resource Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations, Gabriel Di Bella

Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations, Gabriel Di Bella

Label
Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
Title
Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
Statement of responsibility
Gabriel Di Bella
Creator
Contributor
Author
Subject
Genre
Language
eng
Summary
Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity
Member of
Cataloging source
DcWaIMF
http://bibfra.me/vocab/lite/collectionName
IMF eLibrary
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Di Bella, C. Gabriel
Government publication
international or intergovernmental publication
LC call number
K4452.I57
LC item number
D534 2018 ONLINE
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
dictionaries
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
Grigoli, Francesco
Series statement
IMF Working Paper
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Business Fluctuations
  • Cycles
  • Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth
Label
Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations, Gabriel Di Bella
Instantiates
Publication
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
multicolored
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Control code
imfWPIEA2018001
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (31 pages)
Form of item
online
Isbn
9781484336748
Issn
1018-5941
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other control number
10.5089/9781484336748.001
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(IMF)WPIEA2018001
Label
Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations, Gabriel Di Bella
Publication
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
multicolored
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Control code
imfWPIEA2018001
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (31 pages)
Form of item
online
Isbn
9781484336748
Issn
1018-5941
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other control number
10.5089/9781484336748.001
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(IMF)WPIEA2018001

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