The Resource Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
Resource Information
The item Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations represents a specific, individual, material embodiment of a distinct intellectual or artistic creation found in University of San Diego Libraries.This item is available to borrow from 1 library branch.
Resource Information
The item Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations represents a specific, individual, material embodiment of a distinct intellectual or artistic creation found in University of San Diego Libraries.
This item is available to borrow from 1 library branch.
- Summary
- Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity
- Language
- eng
- Extent
- 1 online resource (32 pages)
- Contents
-
- Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Long-term Output and Current Economic Conditions; 2.1 A Simple Keynesian Model: The Setup; 2.2 Expectations about Long-Term Output; 2.3 Simulation; 3 Empirical Strategy; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Empirical Model; 4 Stylized Facts; 5 Results; 5.1 Baseline; 5.2 Extensions; 5.3 Robustness; 6 Conclusions; References; A Country Groups; B Data; List of Figures; 1 Expected Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Economic Performance; 2 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecasts (Percent); 3 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecast Before and After the GFC (Percent)
- 4 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecasts and Consumption and Investment Forecast Error (Percent)5 Responses to a One pp Upward Revision in the Potential Output Growth Forecast (Percent); List of Tables; 1 Numerical Example; 2 Summary Statistics of Revisions to Potential Output Growth Forecasts (Percent); 3 Baseline Estimations; 4 Interactions; 5 Controls; 6 Robustness Checks; 7 Alternative Estimators; B.1 Data Sources
- Isbn
- 9781484336748
- Label
- Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
- Title
- Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
- Language
- eng
- Summary
- Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity
- Cataloging source
- EBLCP
- http://bibfra.me/vocab/lite/collectionName
- IMF eLibrary
- http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
- Di Bella, C. Gabriel
- Index
- no index present
- Literary form
- non fiction
- Nature of contents
- dictionaries
- http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
- Grigoli, Francesco
- Series statement
- IMF Working Paper
- http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
-
- Animal Spirits
- Business Fluctuations
- All Countries
- Expectations
- Fluctuations
- Keynesian
- Optimism
- Label
- Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
- Carrier category
- online resource
- Carrier category code
-
- cr
- Carrier MARC source
- rdacarrier
- Content category
- text
- Content type code
-
- txt
- Content type MARC source
- rdacontent
- Contents
-
- Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Long-term Output and Current Economic Conditions; 2.1 A Simple Keynesian Model: The Setup; 2.2 Expectations about Long-Term Output; 2.3 Simulation; 3 Empirical Strategy; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Empirical Model; 4 Stylized Facts; 5 Results; 5.1 Baseline; 5.2 Extensions; 5.3 Robustness; 6 Conclusions; References; A Country Groups; B Data; List of Figures; 1 Expected Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Economic Performance; 2 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecasts (Percent); 3 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecast Before and After the GFC (Percent)
- 4 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecasts and Consumption and Investment Forecast Error (Percent)5 Responses to a One pp Upward Revision in the Potential Output Growth Forecast (Percent); List of Tables; 1 Numerical Example; 2 Summary Statistics of Revisions to Potential Output Growth Forecasts (Percent); 3 Baseline Estimations; 4 Interactions; 5 Controls; 6 Robustness Checks; 7 Alternative Estimators; B.1 Data Sources
- Control code
- 1020027378
- Dimensions
- unknown
- Extent
- 1 online resource (32 pages)
- Form of item
- online
- Isbn
- 9781484336748
- Media category
- computer
- Media MARC source
- rdamedia
- Media type code
-
- c
- Other control number
- 10.5089/9781484336748.001
- Specific material designation
- remote
- System control number
-
- imfWPIEA2018001
- (IMF)WPIEA2018001
- (OCoLC)1020027378
- Label
- Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
- Carrier category
- online resource
- Carrier category code
-
- cr
- Carrier MARC source
- rdacarrier
- Content category
- text
- Content type code
-
- txt
- Content type MARC source
- rdacontent
- Contents
-
- Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Long-term Output and Current Economic Conditions; 2.1 A Simple Keynesian Model: The Setup; 2.2 Expectations about Long-Term Output; 2.3 Simulation; 3 Empirical Strategy; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Empirical Model; 4 Stylized Facts; 5 Results; 5.1 Baseline; 5.2 Extensions; 5.3 Robustness; 6 Conclusions; References; A Country Groups; B Data; List of Figures; 1 Expected Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Economic Performance; 2 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecasts (Percent); 3 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecast Before and After the GFC (Percent)
- 4 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecasts and Consumption and Investment Forecast Error (Percent)5 Responses to a One pp Upward Revision in the Potential Output Growth Forecast (Percent); List of Tables; 1 Numerical Example; 2 Summary Statistics of Revisions to Potential Output Growth Forecasts (Percent); 3 Baseline Estimations; 4 Interactions; 5 Controls; 6 Robustness Checks; 7 Alternative Estimators; B.1 Data Sources
- Control code
- 1020027378
- Dimensions
- unknown
- Extent
- 1 online resource (32 pages)
- Form of item
- online
- Isbn
- 9781484336748
- Media category
- computer
- Media MARC source
- rdamedia
- Media type code
-
- c
- Other control number
- 10.5089/9781484336748.001
- Specific material designation
- remote
- System control number
-
- imfWPIEA2018001
- (IMF)WPIEA2018001
- (OCoLC)1020027378
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<div class="citation" vocab="http://schema.org/"><i class="fa fa-external-link-square fa-fw"></i> Data from <span resource="http://link.sandiego.edu/portal/Optimism-Pessimism-and-Short-Term/T8BYLlj3BMw/" typeof="Book http://bibfra.me/vocab/lite/Item"><span property="name http://bibfra.me/vocab/lite/label"><a href="http://link.sandiego.edu/portal/Optimism-Pessimism-and-Short-Term/T8BYLlj3BMw/">Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations</a></span> - <span property="potentialAction" typeOf="OrganizeAction"><span property="agent" typeof="LibrarySystem http://library.link/vocab/LibrarySystem" resource="http://link.sandiego.edu/"><span property="name http://bibfra.me/vocab/lite/label"><a property="url" href="http://link.sandiego.edu/">University of San Diego Libraries</a></span></span></span></span></div>