Coverart for item
The Resource Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations

Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations

Label
Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
Title
Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
Creator
Contributor
Author
Subject
Genre
Language
eng
Summary
Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity
Member of
Cataloging source
EBLCP
http://bibfra.me/vocab/lite/collectionName
IMF eLibrary
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Di Bella, C. Gabriel
Index
no index present
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
dictionaries
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
Grigoli, Francesco
Series statement
IMF Working Paper
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Animal Spirits
  • Business Fluctuations
  • All Countries
  • Expectations
  • Fluctuations
  • Keynesian
  • Optimism
Label
Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
Instantiates
Publication
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
  • Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Long-term Output and Current Economic Conditions; 2.1 A Simple Keynesian Model: The Setup; 2.2 Expectations about Long-Term Output; 2.3 Simulation; 3 Empirical Strategy; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Empirical Model; 4 Stylized Facts; 5 Results; 5.1 Baseline; 5.2 Extensions; 5.3 Robustness; 6 Conclusions; References; A Country Groups; B Data; List of Figures; 1 Expected Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Economic Performance; 2 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecasts (Percent); 3 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecast Before and After the GFC (Percent)
  • 4 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecasts and Consumption and Investment Forecast Error (Percent)5 Responses to a One pp Upward Revision in the Potential Output Growth Forecast (Percent); List of Tables; 1 Numerical Example; 2 Summary Statistics of Revisions to Potential Output Growth Forecasts (Percent); 3 Baseline Estimations; 4 Interactions; 5 Controls; 6 Robustness Checks; 7 Alternative Estimators; B.1 Data Sources
Control code
1020027378
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (32 pages)
Form of item
online
Isbn
9781484336748
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other control number
10.5089/9781484336748.001
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
  • imfWPIEA2018001
  • (IMF)WPIEA2018001
  • (OCoLC)1020027378
Label
Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
Publication
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
  • Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Long-term Output and Current Economic Conditions; 2.1 A Simple Keynesian Model: The Setup; 2.2 Expectations about Long-Term Output; 2.3 Simulation; 3 Empirical Strategy; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Empirical Model; 4 Stylized Facts; 5 Results; 5.1 Baseline; 5.2 Extensions; 5.3 Robustness; 6 Conclusions; References; A Country Groups; B Data; List of Figures; 1 Expected Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Economic Performance; 2 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecasts (Percent); 3 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecast Before and After the GFC (Percent)
  • 4 Revisions in Potential Output Growth Forecasts and Consumption and Investment Forecast Error (Percent)5 Responses to a One pp Upward Revision in the Potential Output Growth Forecast (Percent); List of Tables; 1 Numerical Example; 2 Summary Statistics of Revisions to Potential Output Growth Forecasts (Percent); 3 Baseline Estimations; 4 Interactions; 5 Controls; 6 Robustness Checks; 7 Alternative Estimators; B.1 Data Sources
Control code
1020027378
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (32 pages)
Form of item
online
Isbn
9781484336748
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other control number
10.5089/9781484336748.001
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
  • imfWPIEA2018001
  • (IMF)WPIEA2018001
  • (OCoLC)1020027378

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