The Resource Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy, prepared by Francesco Grigoli [and others]

Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy, prepared by Francesco Grigoli [and others]

Label
Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy
Title
Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy
Statement of responsibility
prepared by Francesco Grigoli [and others]
Contributor
Subject
Genre
Language
eng
Summary
Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.--Abstract
Member of
Cataloging source
DJB
http://bibfra.me/vocab/lite/collectionName
IMF eLibrary
Government publication
international or intergovernmental publication
Illustrations
illustrations
Index
no index present
LC call number
HG3881.5.I58
LC item number
W67 No. 15/14 ONLINE
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
  • dictionaries
  • bibliography
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
  • Grigoli, Francesco
  • International Monetary Fund
Series statement
IMF Working Paper
Series volume
WP/15/14
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Economic development
  • Monetary policy
  • Inflation targeting
  • Business cycles
  • Time-series analysis
  • Business cycles
  • Economic development
  • Inflation targeting
  • Monetary policy
  • Time-series analysis
  • Latin America
Label
Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy, prepared by Francesco Grigoli [and others]
Instantiates
Publication
Copyright
Note
  • Authors: Francesco Grigoli, Alexander Herman, Andrew Swiston, and Gabriel Di Bella
  • "January 2015."
  • "Western Hemisphere Department."
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (page 33)
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
  • Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Output Gap Revisions; A. Output Gap Definition and Data; Tables; 1. Sources of Revisions to Output Gap Estimates; 2. HP Filter Smoothing Parameter; B. Initial Estimates and Revisions; 3. Output Gap: Initial Estimates and Revisions; Figures; 1. Output Gap Revisions by Vintage; 2. Initial and Final Output Gap Estimates; C. Robustness Checks; 3. Revision Properties; 4. Comparison Across Sources; 5. Comparison Across US Output Gap Estimates; III. Determinants of Output Gap Revisions; A. Empirical Strategy; B. Results
  • 4. Determinants of the Absolute Revisions of the Output Gap, Baseline5. Determinants of the Absolute Revisions of the Output Gap, Extensions; 6. Determinants of the Probability of the Output Gap Changing Sign; IV. Policy Implications; A. To Ease, or to Tighten?; B. Setting Monetary Policy in Real Time; 6. Real-Time Output Gap Estimates and Confidence Intervals; 7. Quarterly Output Gap estimates for LA-5 Economies; C. Monetary Reaction Functions; 7. Output Gaps and Revisions; D. Output Gap Revisions and Policy Revisions; E. Output Gap Revisions and Inflation
  • 8. Policy Deviations Owing to Output Gap Revisions8. Output Gap as a Predictor of Inflation; V. Summary and Conclusions; Appendix I. Data; References
Control code
901374533
Extent
1 online resource (35 pages)
Form of item
online
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other physical details
illustrations
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)901374533
Label
Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy, prepared by Francesco Grigoli [and others]
Publication
Copyright
Note
  • Authors: Francesco Grigoli, Alexander Herman, Andrew Swiston, and Gabriel Di Bella
  • "January 2015."
  • "Western Hemisphere Department."
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (page 33)
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
  • Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Output Gap Revisions; A. Output Gap Definition and Data; Tables; 1. Sources of Revisions to Output Gap Estimates; 2. HP Filter Smoothing Parameter; B. Initial Estimates and Revisions; 3. Output Gap: Initial Estimates and Revisions; Figures; 1. Output Gap Revisions by Vintage; 2. Initial and Final Output Gap Estimates; C. Robustness Checks; 3. Revision Properties; 4. Comparison Across Sources; 5. Comparison Across US Output Gap Estimates; III. Determinants of Output Gap Revisions; A. Empirical Strategy; B. Results
  • 4. Determinants of the Absolute Revisions of the Output Gap, Baseline5. Determinants of the Absolute Revisions of the Output Gap, Extensions; 6. Determinants of the Probability of the Output Gap Changing Sign; IV. Policy Implications; A. To Ease, or to Tighten?; B. Setting Monetary Policy in Real Time; 6. Real-Time Output Gap Estimates and Confidence Intervals; 7. Quarterly Output Gap estimates for LA-5 Economies; C. Monetary Reaction Functions; 7. Output Gaps and Revisions; D. Output Gap Revisions and Policy Revisions; E. Output Gap Revisions and Inflation
  • 8. Policy Deviations Owing to Output Gap Revisions8. Output Gap as a Predictor of Inflation; V. Summary and Conclusions; Appendix I. Data; References
Control code
901374533
Extent
1 online resource (35 pages)
Form of item
online
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other physical details
illustrations
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)901374533

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