Coverart for item
The Resource War and chance : assessing uncertainty in international politics, Jeffrey A. Friedman

War and chance : assessing uncertainty in international politics, Jeffrey A. Friedman

Label
War and chance : assessing uncertainty in international politics
Title
War and chance
Title remainder
assessing uncertainty in international politics
Statement of responsibility
Jeffrey A. Friedman
Creator
Author
Subject
Language
eng
Summary
War and Chance analyzes the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs. It explains how the most important kinds of uncertainty in international politics are inherently subjective, and yet how scholars, practitioners, and pundits can still debate these issues in clear and structured ways. Altogether, the book shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any kind of foreign policy analysis or decision. The book substantiates this argument by examining critical episodes in the history of U.S. national security policy, such as strategic planning in Vietnam, assessments of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programs, and the search for Osama bin Laden. The book also draws on a diverse range of quantitative evidence, including a database containing nearly one million geopolitical forecasts and experimental studies involving hundreds of national security professionals
Member of
Cataloging source
DLC
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Friedman, Jeffrey A.
Illustrations
illustrations
Index
index present
LC call number
JZ1253
LC item number
.F75 2019
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
bibliography
Series statement
Bridging the gap
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • International relations
  • National security
  • Uncertainty
  • United States
  • National security
  • Uncertainty
  • International relations
  • National security
  • United States
  • Außenpolitik
  • Entscheidungsfindung
  • Internationale Politik
  • Politikfeldanalyse
  • Politische Entscheidung
  • USA
  • United States
  • 89.90 foreign policy
Label
War and chance : assessing uncertainty in international politics, Jeffrey A. Friedman
Instantiates
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references and index
Carrier category
volume
Carrier category code
  • nc
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
Introduction : "One of the things you learn as president is that you're always dealing with probabilities" -- Pathologies of probability assessment -- Subjective probability and international politics -- The value of precision in probability assessment -- Dispelling illusions of rigor -- The politics of uncertainty and blame -- Analysis and decision -- Placing probability front and center in foreign policy discourse
Control code
1073034232
Dimensions
25 cm
Extent
x, 228 pages
Isbn
9780190938024
Lccn
2018043558
Media category
unmediated
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • n
Other physical details
illustrations
System control number
(OCoLC)1073034232
Label
War and chance : assessing uncertainty in international politics, Jeffrey A. Friedman
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references and index
Carrier category
volume
Carrier category code
  • nc
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
Introduction : "One of the things you learn as president is that you're always dealing with probabilities" -- Pathologies of probability assessment -- Subjective probability and international politics -- The value of precision in probability assessment -- Dispelling illusions of rigor -- The politics of uncertainty and blame -- Analysis and decision -- Placing probability front and center in foreign policy discourse
Control code
1073034232
Dimensions
25 cm
Extent
x, 228 pages
Isbn
9780190938024
Lccn
2018043558
Media category
unmediated
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • n
Other physical details
illustrations
System control number
(OCoLC)1073034232

Library Locations

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      32.771354 -117.193327
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